Summer is usually a time when the political and economic news cycles slow down. People spend more time enjoying the summer and the elite are no exception. They have cottages by the lake and yachts to enjoy. Of course, the exception are summers right before a U.S. Presidential election. We remember the summer of 2020 when the oligarchs and their obedient semi-sentient automatons who infest social media cheered on the burning of U.S. cities. All because a violent junkie overdosed while being seemingly roughly arrested. I will admit my bias here. I grew up in Montreal in the 1960’s and 1970’s where cops routinely brutalized arrestee’s far more compliant than George Floyd. Believe it or not, there was a time when cops where respected, if not feared. The public had no time or sympathy for stupid people with no self-control.
The summer of 2023 seems like the day before a hurricane hits. You know with certainty, that it will probably be bad even if you do not yet know how awful it will get. We are facing a political tsunami and an economic hurricane at the same time. Donald Trump faces multiple indictments. Almost half of America gloats. Historically, autocratic and corrupt regimes imprison political opponents. This has happened regularly throughout history and almost always by autocratic regimes. It almost never happens in true free democracies unless there is a war or imminent threat of war, and then only temporarily. Examples are Woodrow Wilson stifling pacifist descent during World War I and the British interning Oswald Mosley, leader of the British Union of Fascists after the fall of France in World War II. Interestingly, Mosley spent most of the war under de facto house arrest while in his mid forties. Democrats are seeking to put Trump in prison indefinitely knowing full well, that at seventy-seven years of age, this action would result in him dying in prison. British parliamentarians in the 1930’s and 1940’s treated an actual fascist more in accordance with a the values of a free democracy than current Democrats do their opponents.
Leftist politicians and their highly paid flunkies on social media gloat over the Trump indictments at their own peril and that of the nation. Some even point out with pride, that many high profile prosecutors of the former President are Black. (Alvin Bragg and Fani Willis). Not sure if that’s a great idea. Historically, minorities who are seen as agents of a corrupt and autocratic regime can be targeted when the mob takes over and people lose their minds. Most, if not all are innocent scapegoats. At the same time, corrupt and autocratic regimes target minorities as scapegoats. The Russian Romanovs persecuted Jews for generations until they were executed in 1918. This would be tragic for Blacks and persecution of an entire group because of the bad behavior of some is always wrong. History demonstrates when things go south, people behave irrationally and violently towards vulnerable minorities. And once the genie of violence is out, it can take generations to put back.
The Russian and French revolutions were preceded by the economic hardship of the general population and their perception that the elite not only did not care about their plight but intentionally added to it. The economies in many nations is in decline. People are getting poorer is the U.S., Canada, U.K, China and in numerous other places. The ranks of the starving are increasing for the first time in most people’s memories. Folks are getting angrier and angrier and the elite gaslights and blames opposition voices. The explosion of the song Rich Men North of Richmond into the American consciousness is a demonstration of the downtrodden seeking validation. The working class better understands the current situation than do the elites. The rich and privileged sip $30 cocktails after work at the tony bars in Manhattan, downtown Toronto and West L.A while struggling families try to feed their families on $30 a day. The elite class feel as secure as the Romanovs at the Winter Palace and the Bourbons at Versailles did before their world collapsed. Things can unexpectedly deteriorate quickly.
Foreign nations, even those on the left, now fear that with the Trump prosecutions, the U.S. had become a banana republic because they jail opposition leaders. Banana republics are inherently stable. America is also faced with an unsustainable debt situation. Even nations like Russia and China who may be seen as rivals or even enemies of the U.S. are wise enough to fear a political and economic collapse of the U.S. Is Trump like the dissident communists in the West during Cold War who supported Stalin or is he like, as in overwhelmingly the probable case, a legitimate political dissident. This question may only appear easy in hindsight and depend on your politics most of the time but not this case. The fundamental question can be answered. Is the regime doing the jailing just and the nation under real threat from war or totalitarianism? The answer today is clear. The Democrats is America and leftists in other nations have lost their minds and gone totalitarian. They overestimate their ability to gaslight the population and how quickly things can implode. They seriously and perhaps, one day will catastrophically underestimate the risk. Cynically, I believe their Waterloo will not be a result of everyone waking up but that people will get so desperate and impoverished that they rise up. It is really the regime’s choice with respect to the degree of violence that will occur. Sane people hope that they will come to their senses. I am relatively sane but I am also a realist and have learned not to expect fools to change.
We expect serious civil strife issues by late summer 2024 at the latest. By that time, people will be mentally, financially, and physically exhausted even if the recovery technically begins. We might get an unprecedented situation with two elderly candidates, both under legal clouds, are contesting an election during a serious economic downturn and after effectively losing two wars. Voters in both parties each believe the other candidate is an unstable and mentally ill despot that seeks to actively ruin their lives and that of their children. They are beginning to view each other in terms of good and evil. No longer is the choice seen as conservative vs. liberal but authoritarian demonic sexual depravity vs. violent religious extremists and bigots. By then, as said, even the densest among us will realize the economy is performing poorly. It will be increasing obvious to even regime supporting Americans and their overseas globalist friends that the American empire is in decline as more nations reject U.S. hegemony.
I do not support this breakdown. I merely warn about it. Don’t shoot the messenger but this crisis isn’t going away. The only peaceful and prosperous way out of this is for the regime to give up power at almost all levels and to be replaced by brave and smart leadership. Otherwise we will be much poorer and far less free. Hopefully, the next guys in power will learn from our present feckless masters.
Stay cautious with your investments. Equity markets are overpriced. Concentrate on income investments, commodities and cash. Stay safe and keep non-perishable food in your homes. You may be stuck at home for days at a time.